BETA
This is a BETA experience. You may opt-out by clicking here

More From Forbes

Edit Story

To Minimize Human Suffering, America Needs A Future Of Work Strategy

Forbes Technology Council

Andy is CSO for Huawei Technologies USA, overseeing Huawei’s US cyber assurance program. 

Widespread unemployment caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has triggered U.S. government action to save some companies and support displaced workers. But it's unclear when there will be a vaccine, how quickly various sectors of the economy will bounce back and whether the new normal for employment will look anything like the old.

Covid-19 has accelerated a process that was already underway, one that could put millions of American workers at a permanent disadvantage. A study by the University of Chicago estimates that 37% of all U.S. jobs can be done from home. This may lead some companies to conclude that they can get by with fewer people, especially employees without requisite skills.

For many companies, automation can lower costs by reducing the need to hire people. A report (paywall) by Forrester notes that once companies start recovering from recessions, they tend not to hire more workers, instead investing in automation. While automation is certainly not new, Forrester says it is "taking on a new urgency, not just in the context of cost but also as a tool for risk mitigation and business resiliency."

All of this comes after globalization allowed companies to move manufacturing operations and well-paid jobs to low-cost locations abroad, spawning some backlash. President Donald Trump has pushed to bring jobs home to the United States. Although some jobs have apparently returned, they are often lower-paid positions, and there are relatively few of them. One has to wonder how secure they are.

As a society, we failed to prepare adequately for globalization and did not respond fast enough when the human cost started becoming clear. Automation and emerging technologies should transform government, the private sector and everyday life, and this transformation should create many new employment opportunities — for highly skilled workers. However, the Covid-19 pandemic clearly demonstrates the vulnerable status of those who might lack formal education and the requisite experience or abilities. If we don't act now, automation — and technology, more generally — could produce job losses even greater than those caused by globalization.

To lessen the impact on the American workforce, we should anticipate the many ways in which robotics, machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) will change the skills needed to find steady, well-paid work. We should plan to manage the resulting loss of employment opportunities for workers lacking formal education and qualifications. I believe we should launch a strategic public-private initiative on the future of work to determine the arc of U.S. employment in the coming years and develop a national approach to reeducating and retraining the millions of Americans looking to compete for decent jobs in a post-Covid-19 economy.

In addition to managing risk, a national future of work strategy could help us take advantage of opportunities created by emerging technologies. Forrester predicts that automation will eliminate about 29% of all U.S. jobs by 2027, but it will also create about 13% of all new jobs during that period, including positions such as automation managers and data scientists. In fact, a recent Accenture report said 5G could create 3 million U.S. jobs and add $500 million to U.S. GDP by unleashing applications in logistics, utilities, manufacturing, city management, healthcare and other sectors. Worldwide, consultancy IHT Markit estimates that 5G will produce $13.2 trillion of economic output by 2035 while generating 22.3 million jobs.

In the future, most good jobs will go to people with relatively high skill levels, leaving workers with fewer qualifications behind. Our strategy must give the most vulnerable workers a chance to compete.

What then should universities, businesses and governments be doing to manage the coming transition successfully?

Our citizens deserve an answer to this question, and we should begin our research now. Once we have the data, here are some actions we can take in the near term:

• Expand universities’ and colleges’ course and degree offerings, including post-degree, part-time, and virtual and on-demand education.

• Launch job training programs for the chronically unemployed and underemployed and for workers who lack the necessary skills to compete when their workloads shrink and their jobs eventually disappear.

• Provide low-cost counseling to those who need it. Given the psychological importance of work to most people, we need to think about how to ensure their mental and emotional well-being in the absence of full-time employment.

• Enlist help from the private sector to craft a future of work strategy and plan. Initial meetings or webinars could involve government decision-makers, major corporations, nongovernmental organizations, universities and research institutes. Conclusions from the initial round of talks could be summarized in a white paper like the European Commission document.

We need to manage our transition to a workforce in which a large percentage of people work less than full time and some Americans with less formal education and fewer qualifications are at a serious structural disadvantage that will not go away unless steps are taken to rectify the problem. Sitting on our hands will not address the problem.

While opportunities will emerge for those with higher qualifications, disadvantaged workers will be left behind. This could compound the existing problem of income inequality in the U.S. in ways that are hard to imagine. Let's be strategic and proactive about the significance of the technology revolution that we can see on the near horizon on American employment. Shame on us if we don't anticipate the impending disruption and take steps to minimize the human suffering that could come with it.


Forbes Technology Council is an invitation-only community for world-class CIOs, CTOs and technology executives. Do I qualify?


Follow me on LinkedInCheck out my website